First Post: Saturday, December 20, 2014

First day of Winter is tomorrow…until then, this…

Free ones: Rundown…

Gulfstream Park Proper 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
Los Alamitos Thoroughbreds (Daytime) 4, 9

Pay-side: Today…

Fair Grounds 3, 5, 7, 11, 12
Hawthorne 9
Laurel 1, 4, 5, 7, 9
Sunland 5, 6, 7, 8
Tampa 2, 5, 6, 7, 10
Turfway 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
Turf Paradise 3, 4, 5

Today’s Stakes Pageantry: Gulfstream 8, 10 on the free page. On the pay-side it’s Turfway 6 and Turf Paradise 4.

A shout to #2 Country Mamma in Chas. Town 8.

Looks down to #6 Knockitdownhard and #3 Cole’s Magic Vow in Delta 8.

Similarly, the two obvious horseys dominate the Fair Grounds opener.

Here’s an oddity: the odds-on morning-line fave coupled with the rank outsider in the same race. That’s in Los Alamitos Thoroughbreds (Daytime) 8.

Prefer #3 Isadella in Mahoning Valley 4.

Yesterday’s Activity: Race 3 at Laurel was your contentious-race special of your Friday. In it, four horses were touted, and your fourth of those, the Third Bonkersmate, won at 11-1. In the runner-up spot was the second-touted horse, the First Bonkersmate, Hitec Dave, 10-1. The $2 exacta paid $319-even.

As for the faves in this race, there were co-faves at 3-1 straight-up. One of those was Termsofengagement, buried without any Fair Odds in a contentious V6 Betting Line, no better than sixth-ranked there; his LifeLiner Speed Column analysis also was no great shakes in this race. Now, as we have seen throughout this past week in this here section, these kinds of faves are probably not going to run as well as your usual fave runs. In this case, Termsofengagement finished fifth, uninvolved in the vertical exotics.

The other fave was one placement better, fourth past the wire. His name was Alisa’s Engineer, and his LifeLiner Speed Column analysis rating was even worse than Termsofengagement’s. However, ’Alisa was second-top of the conventional Betting Line, Fair Odds of 4½-1.

If you bit the bullet and dismissed both of these tepid co-choices, you were going to be rewarded handsomely this time. This time it would work out. Still, it’s a horserace and these favourites will sometimes have to win or sometimes have to run your exotics. It happens.

But with a little patience and an eagle-eye for nonsensical public favourite-making (as uncovered by the combination of a poor placement on the Betting Line and a substandard, below-80 LifeLiner Speed Column analysis score), the really big exfecta, trizacta or super-duper or both or all three are well within range. When you see this glorious development, let the longshots in.

WMF Report:

Early
Chas. Town 6½f
Mahoning 6f
Keystone 6f
Tampa 6f

Nocturnal Submission: Sifting through the wreckage…

Thank you. Best wishes. Goodbye. Next time!