Pars Week: The Numbers

2011 Cynthia Publishing Company Par Times Book

2011 Cynthia Publishing Company Par Times Book

One-hundred eleven printed pages, 81 North American racetracks, 17,759 unique lines of information — all at your disposal, all on your side.

But, if all you’re looking for is Los Alamitos, you don’t need an update at all: No changes in 2011 from 2010!

Otherwise, the rest of these 2011 Cynthia Publishing Company par times capture the essence of the pace-and-speed fluctuations of North American racetracks during the whole of 2010. (And, yes, even some of 2011, in the case of the pars presented for the good-old-is-new-again plain dirt surface at Santa Anita.)

As well, they bring you up-to-date on new distances (for example, Fair Grounds’ 1m70y), new course-structures (for example, Evangeline Downs’ “about” turf), new class levels (for example, Santa Anita’s capitulation to run $8,000 open-claimers) and all the rest.

The numbers themselves provide the baseline, so to speak, for several measures that traditional and new-wave handicappers alike find useful.

For the old-schoolers, pars are the basis for variant-creation or else construction of full-fledged Beyer- or Quirin-type speed figures. It all begins with pars. (And with the additional SuperPar tables outlining another 350-plus unconventional situations, variants and figures are bound to get more precise!)

For those on the avant-garde, pars are required data for 21st-century pace-and-speed the “Cynthia Publishing Company” way, turning the jumble and ambiguities of the running times in the past performances into a meaningful array of information that brings disparate performances (occurring at distances, tracks, surfaces and class levels different from today’s) onto a level playing field. (And, yes, the PLUS materials show you precisely how to do it!)

So, why these pars? What’s so special? Aha! You look at a grand piano and they’re all the same, and then you look at the marque on it and it reads “Steinway”. That’s why. That same degree of rigorous fine-tuning and engineering goes a long way toward setting these pars apart.

To wit: Each year, we note the pace-and-speed characteristics of more than 50,000 races. Rather than create a simple single-class-level par and adjust by some arbitrary schedule of neighboring class levels, we look for the unique idiosyncrasies from track-to-track. No universal adjustments will do for us. We want these pars to reflect local realities as much as is possible.

Same goes for distance-to-distance differences. We could simply add or subtract a rule-of-thumb 6 2/-5-second increment to the final-time for each half-furlong difference in distance, but that’s not always an accurate measure of where the rubber meets the road, where the hoof meets the dirt, synthetic or turf. So again we set out to capture the subtleties and incorporate them into the pars.

Which is why you won’t see a simplistic cookie-cutter pace chart for all sprint distances and another pace chart for all route distances. Each distance is unique, even if it’s only a fifth of a second different from its neighboring distances. We aim to present this level of sharper focus.

By doing so, much truer pace-and-speed relationships emerge from the various classes and distances at a track — of course, by logical extension, between different tracks. You and your handicapping should come to appreciate these higher-level distinctions! They are what will provide you with an information edge on the rest of your competitors!

These are the pars that ship with all versions of our handicapping software, and they allow for the crystal-clear real-time projections found in our vaunted Speed/Pace Summary in All-In-One V6, TheHandyCapper and FastCapper. These pars are also at the heart of the exciting new developments we make as we continue our work on measuring real Thoroughbred ability. We are especially proud of the job they do in contributing to our novel but revelatory LifeLine Speed Column Analysis found in All-In-One Version 6.

So, if you are looking for instruction on the Cynthia Publishing Company pars and what they can do for you, by all means consider the printed-book version. It’s a treasure trove of numbers, stats, facts, trends and expository instruction. It beats the same-old, same-old, that’s for certain. You will undoubtedly learn something, and you just may find a profitable new way of handicapping the horse races.

What’s better, should you decide to graduate to the software down the line, we’ll gladly credit the price you pay for this book now toward the price of your upgrade later. You can’t beat it.

Now, printed pars are not the only way to go. In this age of DIY, lifehacking and electronic mods, we can package these outstanding numbers to you in a convenient digital format, for use in a spreadsheet, database or any other homegrown application of your choosing. Perhaps you have a custom-made or self-written program that makes variants based on pars, or makes figures based on pars…whatever. These pars come in a standard *.csv (comma-separated values) format for quick import for all your computing purposes.

To recap: the pars are the basis for many useful applications, some conventional, others unconventional. Put them to use however you want, but do enjoy the added precision that comes from examining more than 50,000 races and distilling that data into more than 17,000 unique records guaranteed to set you apart from the typical racegoer — and even many of the savvy ones!

For information on the 2011 Cynthia Publishing Company par times in printed-book version (including all the PLUS and SuperPar supplements).

For information on the 2011 Cynthia Publishing Company par times in digitized Programmers Pars format (including all the PLUS and SuperPar supplements).

Thank you for your continued readership! Best wishes!

About Steven Unite

The unofficial spokesperson for the Boys In The Backroom...
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