Big M alert! Big M alert!
Well, not so big these days. Remember when The Meadowlands (later known as ‘Meadowlands Racetrack’) was pretty much a nighttime, Lasix-permitting continuation of the daytime NYRA card across the Hudson? Those were the days (and nights)! Dave Johnson, Tom Durkin, Angel Cordero Jr., all the giants. Now it is what it is, six races a night, turf-only, with nary a marquee name on the horizon. It happens. Nonetheless, it is a new track opening this evening, so we are compelled to take a look.
Before that, though, some notes on last night’s debacles. Yes! Odds-on horses lose, and they lose somewhere everyday, at one track or another. What looked like (to us) a prohibitive choice at Pleasanton was nothing more than an abject loser at 4-5 — dead last! Hoo-boy. We get fooled, the public gets bamboozled and there’s always another race 22 mins. away. While it seems embarrassing in isolation, it must be accepted as part of the longer run of results. (And even though there are schemes in which certain Triple Threat faves can be played indiscriminately, every one of ’em, and a profit eked-out, it nonetheless hurts when they simply don’t show up for even one or two jumps. Oh, well!)
Then there was the longshot call at Chas. Town. Once again, it is always a danger to look at things ahead of time, with preconceptions and guidelines that may be laughed at loudly in reality, on the toteboard. So it was last night. Now, if you have loitered around this here Web log for any length of time, probably you are aware that most of our longshot advisories start at 8-1 on the morning line. Has to be done. Arbitrariness is a prerequisite for non-real-time recommendations. Regrets!
Now, this Chas. Town race on Thursday, then, Race 5. The recommended horsey was 8-1 on the morning line. But it got played-down to 4-1, half that! Probably not much value there, not as the third-choice in the wagering instead of the fifth-best issue on the morning line.
But if you roll your own, you see a 6-1 morning-line contender, second-best on the LifeLiner Spread Column analysis, 19-1 on the toteboard…
You know how the story ends, surely. The tout is overbet, runs last. The unconsidered runner, too low on the morning line at 6-1 but more than playable at 19-1 in real life, wins by 1¾ at $40.40! What are you gonna do? Roll-your-own, roll-your-own, U-S-A, U-S-A! Painful stuff for the readers, scenes of jubilation for the actual users. The overlay changed identity! Run the numbers yourself and you spot the transformation.
Over to E. Rutherford, N.J., then for your Meadowlands Racetrack Opening Night rundown. Races 4, 5 & 6 look best for the contentious-race lovers. Indeed, in Race 4 there’s only one noncontender. We will name him now so you can watch him win: Professor Palmer! No fewer than seven horses are between 3-1 and 6-1 on the morning line, and some of those seven will be way higher than 6-1 on your morning line. If you roll your own, you can match ’em up. In Race 5, two horses at 8-1 on the morning line should be at least that in terms of actual odds, but you never know: #3 Phone My Posse, #9 Billy Lion Heart, both of whom are capable of the upset. The nightcap, Race 6, is another barnburner, with seven of the 10 registering some kind of contender-worthy number. Again, we’ll let you figure that one out.
But you have Race 5 for now, anyway. See you again sometime soon, most likely tomorrow. Though it is being reported the world as we know it may be ending tomorrow, in which case, it has been a pleasure to serve you. And if the world somehow escapes its demise, well, you’re gonna be stuck with us! Either way, a cruel blow. Hahahahhaha!
