First Post: Wednesday, February 4, 2015

Inside Griffith Observatory, Los Angeles, Calif.

Good morning now!

Free ones: Rundown…

Aqueduct 1, 5
Gulfstream Park Proper 1, 3, 7, 9, 10

Pay-side (Weekday/Weekend): Today…

Tampa 2, 3, 4, 5, 8
Turf Paradise 1, 6, 7, 8

Today’s Stakes Pageantry: One today at Turf Paradise, Race 4, and sadly it looks like a match race between the two shortest-priced horses on your morning line. Regretsz!

Yesterday’s Activity: When you tout the night before the races, you have to use some sort of arbitrary value cutoffs. You don’t have knowledge of the post-time odds, so you sort of guess who’ll be an acceptable price. The main instrument used to carry out the guessing: the morning line.

We go with an 8-1 minimum. Who knows why. But the dangers of touting are made apparent when some horsey whose morning line is 6-1 or lower somehow gets away at a ridiculous price. Such was the case yesterday for your Race 9 at Sam Houston Race Park and Dog Walk.

We had this horsey named Bold Cait, second-best on your conventional V6 Betting Line in a contentious race, Fair Odds of 3-1. On the LifeLiner Speed Column analysis, Bold Cait was top of the top: 97. Her morning line was a mild and reasonable 6-1.

Note that well, because ’Cait was not anywhere near that optimistic morning line. Bold Cait was not higher than seventh-choice in the wagering, in an 8-horse lineup. Hoo-boy. Bold Cait went off at 10¢ shy of 22-1 when the bell rang.

Bold Cait rallied like the champion she’s on her way to becoming, as befit her complete LifeLiner array of 83-77-97. She won by a clean neck and paid $45.80-straight. The odds-on choice was your runner-up, OK on LifeLiner, and the surprise-winner exacta paid $137-even.

As always, hope you had ’em!

WMF Report:

Early
Chas. Town 4½f
Turf Paradise 6f

Nocturnal Submission: Sifting through the wreckage…

Thank you. Best wishes. Goodbye. So long now.