First Post: Saturday, December 27, 2014

Mike Vick Loverszzzz!

All right, all right, ya Hokie Hokie Hokie Hi’s. Take it easy! The Va. Poly Poultry will be gobbling up the postseason atmosphere this afternoon in your 2014 Military Bowl. Zinzy Bearcatsz are the 2½-pt. faves, though.

Logan Thomas throwing on Sunday.

Free ones: Rundown…

Aqueduct 2, 5, 8, 9
Gulfstream Park 2, 3, 5, 7, 8, 10
Santa Anita 2, 4, 5

Pay-side: Today…

Fair Grounds 9
Golden Gate 3, 7, 8
Hawthorne 7
Laurel 4, 5, 7
Sunland 6, 7, 10
Tampa 1, 4, 8, 10
Turfway 5, 8, 9
Turf Paradise 2, 6, 7

Today’s Stakes Pageantry: Gulfstream 8, 10, Santa Anita 5 on the free page. On the pay-side it’s Turf Paradise 7.

Santa Anita 6 resembles an equine lotto-ball hopper, and #12 Broughton Kitten is as worthy as any other runner in here.

Similarly contentious in Tampa 7, with #8 Coco’s Wildcat at no disadvantage to the rest.

Singling out #4 Solomon to beat the chalk in Turf Paradise 3.

Yesterday’s Activity: Bomb of Your Day Friday came courtesy of Senate Rules in Race 7 at Turf Paradise.

Senate Rules was third-best on your conventional V6 Betting Line, no Fair Odds listed for him in a contentious race. Senate Rules was also third-best on your LifeLiner Speed Column analysis, 93. He won gate-to-wire by nearly 5 lengths at $30.40 up top. His morning line odds were 8-1.

Favored Mojumbo, 19-10 on the toteboard, was a notch above ’Senate in terms of both the Betting Line and the LifeLiner Speed Column analysis. Perhaps a comparable there? Two horseys looking alike on the Betting Line and on the LifeLiner, one at 19-10 in the wagering, the other at 14-1. Interesting stuff.

Similarly, one of the supporting stakes on the Malibu Opening Day/Boxing Day card at Santa Anita was comparable — nae, even better-looking — than the fave in the race. The winner was Alert Bay, and he was co-second-choice on your V6 Betting Line, Fair Odds of 6-1; the other second-choice on that Betting Line was Heart to Heart.

On the LifeLiner Speed Column analysis, though, Alert Bay was 93; Heart to Heart was 81. So, you have one horsey at 6-1 Fair Odds and LifeLiner 93; the other horsey is also at 6-1 Fair Odds but with a LifeLiner Speed Column analysis of 81. Looks easy, huh? More comparables. Alert Bay, on this set of cold dope, anyway, should be preferred by the public over Heart to Heart.

Not this time. The crowd was not using the same set of evaluators. They sent Heart to Heart off at 2-1, as the post-time fave. Alert Bay was disregarded at 9-1.

Alert Bay got up in time, paying $20.40 to win.

The theme with these winning longshots, then, was looking comparable to the actual race fave, but at grossly undervalued odds. The pair of comparable horseys in each race could have been expected to be closely priced on the toteboard; however, the unwarranted disparity made the longer-priced horse in each case worth a second look, whether they finished first or not. This time, they did.

WMF Report:

Early
Fair Grounds 6f
Los Alamitos 4½f
Mahoning 6f
Keystone 5½f, 6f
Tampa 6f
Turf Paradise 6f

Nocturnal Submission: Sifting through the wreckage…

Thank you. Best wishes. Goodbye. Later!