First Post: Sunday, March 2, 2014

Our wants are simple…just a sixth gear, please!

Here it is, one of those Special Sundaysz in La-La Land. It will be absolutely wonderful to take to the local streets around 5 p.m. PST, with the open road ahead of us, poking in and out of various establishments and eateries to see them utterly devoid of customersz — just like it is every day here at the ol’ Cynthia Publishing Company! Occasions like Oscar Night, Super Bowl Sunday, Yom Kippur, the eight nights of the Passover are all worth it for the simple bliss of being able to roam around freely on the highways and byways, go into the restaurants and see them not filled at all with those mopesz who demand sending every last dish back into the kitchen. Ah!

Free ones: Rundown…

Aqueduct 7, 9
Calder / Gulf Calder 4, 7, Gulf 7, 8, 9
Santa Anita 7, 8

Pay-side: Today…

Fair Grounds 3, 7, 9
Golden Gate 5
Hawthorne 1, 4
Oaklawn 2, 3, 5, 6, 9
Tampa 10
Turfway 2, 4, 7
Turf Paradise 2

A first! No Bonkers Boxes on the pay-side. Probably for the best, save some money, etc.

Today’s Stakes Pageantry: GP 9 on the free page.

Yesterday’s Activity: Sometimes you just gotta be there.

As much as we all would like to put the wagers in ahead of time, then go off and do other stimulating things such as hit the golf course or the tennis court or chat up pandas in bars, it’s obviously not the optimal strategy.

How come? For starters, the morning line is an anticipatory guide, but the U.S. is not the UK. On these shores, it’s all tote action, and the prices shift wildly. Gross bet-downs (or bet-ups!) occur daily, many times daily. Sadly, the one true gauge of value is unsettled until the bets are in the bell has rung — and even after that, some fat-cat offshore might have a final word about how the prices will end up.

Then there’s the unanticipated late-scratch, which can alter the makeup of the race and shift the perception of playability.

On that score, check out Race 5 yesterday from the Gulfstream Park in lovely Hallandale, Fla. Up to a half-hour before post-time, the conventional V6 Betting Line had a strong number on Profetiza, Fair Odds of 2½-1 and well clear of the next-horse in the reckoning, Bella Castani, Fair Odds of 4-1; that’s an 8-percentage-point gap.

But with 27 minutes to go, there was a late-scratch, courtesy of the Track Veterinarians. Feelingbettertoday, 20-1 on the morning line, was not really living up to her name and was a last-second withdrawal. After the numbers were rerun, Profetiza was banished to third-choice on the V6 Betting ine, Fair Odds of 4½-1, and Bella Castani got bumped up to top-billing, Fair Odds of 3-1.

In-between those two, Savvy Hester shot up to strong consideration, Fair Odds of 3½-1.

As you can see, the complexion of the race was radically changed; a prohibitively strong top-pick got lost in a contentious three-horsey shuffle.

Savvy Hester, 12-1 on the morning line and 16-1 in real life, all of a sudden became a Live Longshot — great on all counts (LifeLiner Speed Column rating of 88), but unknowable until the up-to-the-minute knowledge of the late-scratch. What are you going to do? Well, maybe the panda in a bar will take kindly to being chatted-up!

As for the misguided morning-lines, take your pick. The latest egregious (mis)estimation came in Oaklawn Park Race 5 for your Saturday, March 1, 2014. As licensed semi-professional longshot-touters, we are compelled to draw the line somewhere along the morning line, and that somewhere is at 8-1; lower than 8-1, and we will not be touting you. Sorry. That’s how it is.

So here’s a horsey yesterday in Oaklawn Race 5 named Six Tonsafun, OK ratings in a contentious race, but with a modest morning line of 4½-1. You know what that meant: no touting allowed.

Yet here’s the Six Tonsafun, third-choice on the Betting Line, top LifeLiner Speed Column rating in the field, and somehow the Hot Springs bettors want to send him off at 20¢ shy of 15-1. How would you know unless you were staring at the toteboard? Hope you hit a hole-in-one or double-bagel your opponent 6-nil, 6-nil, because those might the only valid reasons for missing such rampant value! Hope that panda in a bar reciprocatesz!

Ah, yes, these two longshot winners — Savvy Hester & Six Tonsafun — are blatant arguments in favor of being there, Chauncey. Hope you had ’em!

WMF Report:

Early
Fair Grounds 6f
Keystone 7f
Turfway 6f

Nocturnal Submission: Sifting through the wreckage…

Thank you. Best wishes. Goodbye. Later!