First Post: Wednesday, July 13, 2016

Good morning (PDT) again.

Free ones: Rundown…

Belmont 2, 6, 7, 9

Pay-side (Weekday/Weekend): Today…

Louisiana 2, 4
Woodbine 5, 6, 7

Today’s Stakes Pageantry: Indiana 8 is contentious, and #9 Easy Doer is at no significant disadvantage to the rest.

Yesterday’s Activity:

Track (Win Mutuels $20+/Gettable)

Fort Erie (2/2) —

https://cynthiapublishing.com/hp_wordpress/2016/07/12/tuesday-sniping-elizabeth-holmes-bamboozler-of-the-highest-order-edition/

Regrets on the lack of a public tout on Rhyme Nor Reason in Race 1. Two reasons: 1. the too-low 6-1 morning-line odds on her; 2. Fort Erie scratches are unavailable by the press-time for the earlier edition of ‘Tuesday Sniping’. Nonetheless, High-Octane Chancers saw that ’Rhyme had a sharp 91 on the LifeLiner Speed Column in a noncontentious race; she rallied like the champion she’s on her way to becoming, winning by a clean neck and paying $20.10 up top. In the finale, publicly touted Ring of Glory had the barely-squeaking-by 80 on the LifeLiner Spread Column in a contentious race; he had to rally, but he won anyway, by 1, at $23.30 straight. Good work.

Finger (0/0) — Several KeyBank and First Niagara branches slated to close during merger.

Fairmount (0/0) — Robbers target St. Louis-area ‘Pokémon Go’ players.

Indiana (2/1) —

https://cynthiapublishing.com/hp_wordpress/2016/07/12/tuesday-sniping-unfortunately-titled-again-edition/

Publicly touted Weekend Special had a strong 92 on the LifeLiner Spread Column analysis in a contentious Race 5; ’Special had to rally, though, winning by a clean half-length at $58-even. Good work.

P.S. Rec’d, raw & unedited, from the always-thoughtful and soulful Ned Reldem, Esq. He is not a bamboozler, except when it comes to his passionate defense of the fine taste of Schaefer or Keystone Light. At those times, perhaps he would enjoy a date with Ms. Eliz. Holmes and a 24-pack suitcase of each. In cervisia mala veritas…

‘Well, just used time tested master po // mistah Mitchell // meadow lark meadows even if you like a horse it doesn’t make it a good bet. Much like in the stock market a great company does not necessarily make a great stock due to price. The corollary is that every asset can make a good investment no matter how crummy the business is if it undervalued i.e cigar butt investing – Walter Schloss. In this case the touted horse got bet down. Looking back the race was contentious and only four horses on speed or spread qualified so at 28-1 it seemed a reasonable play on a risk//return basis. Asymmetrical Risk/Payoff is what the longshot strategy appears to be if you can hit only 10% of the time you are likely in the black (since 8-1 is the lowest you bet you likely need a lower win rate than 10%) Easier said than done but considering the inexact science of this probably as good a strategy as any to get in the black. Plus I would think it is mentally less taxing as you are not trying to find the best horse in each race instead you are identifying those races where these potential situations exist. The struggle with this strategy which I think I have finally overcome is realizing that hitting 130 is really like hitting 400 in baseball it takes some time to have that sink in. I have started playing exactas again but I would say 90-95% of my win bets are longshot 8-1 or above using master po strategies. Only time I will deviate is a value bet on a triple threat horse but even there I won’t go lower than 5-1. Also in those rare situations where the a and b horses are qualifiers and are undervalued in those cases I will put a win bet on both. Those are really the only situations now when I deviate.

Still trying to find my way on contentious races. I play a few of them never below 15-1 and I usually need something else i.e. A and B horse don’t qualify on lifeliner and/or only a few horses qualify on lifeliner. Still finding my way at some point I might come to your conclusion that it is better off staying away from those all together.’

Mountain (1/0) — Double house fire in Moundsville.

Keystone (4/1, hurdles excluded) — Race 8 was contentious, but no public tout was forthcoming on Haunted Vision, owing to her 6-1 morning-line odds — too low. ’Vision was one of ’em Dual Qualifiers (99, 93), and she ran as such, pretty much going gate-to-wire to win by 2 at $30.20. Good work.

Presque (0/0) — Big barn fire in Union City.

WMF Report:

Early
Finger 6f
Indiana 6f
Northlands 6½f
Thistle 6f

Nocturnal Submission: Sifting through the wreckage…

Thank you. Best wishes. Goodbye. Bye-bye.