First Post: Thursday, October 17, 2013

Sunset Toward Sunset…

Billy Joel: Los Angelenos/All come from somewhere…

Some parts good, some parts horrific. Probably the Eagles (as opposed to the Igglesz) got it right: You can check out any time you like/But you can never leave.

Free ones: Rundown…

Belmont 6, 8, 9
Santa Anita 4, 7

Pay-side: Today…

Golden Gate 2, 4, 5, 6
Hawthorne 4, 6, 9
Keeneland 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9
Laurel 2, 5
Remington 2, 6, 8

Rain or shine, near-freezing temperatures or springtime warmth, Keeneland never varies! The only thing that might affect their race-in, race-out contentiousness is if some kind of havoc was wreaked at a local apiary and…

Today’s Stakes Pageantry: Pivotal Game 5 over at Detroit City tonight. Grosse Pointe Farms, represent!

Otherwise, a pair of Race 8s at the big tracks today. Belmont’s eighth is on the free page. And Keeneland’s is on the pay-side.

Yesterday’s Activity: First-time starters in route-races on the main track? Yea or nae? It was “yea” yesterday.

But first, Welcome to The Home of The Runner-Up Finish, as embodied most recently by top-touted Bethel in Kee 4. Bethel was 14-1 in real life from a morning line of 10-1. The race was contentious, and Bethel had enough on LifeLiner Speed. He rallied (71-60-99 LifeLiner array) to get second, but the winner was not reachable. Ugh.

Likewise the nearly-was Second Bonkersmate Thunder Affair, 12-1 on both the tote board and the morning line in Kee 7. Wild race, and the winner was another slippery customer. Regrets!

A winner, finally, in the last at Suffolk, thereby qualifying as a King of the NetCapper Bulliesz special. It was First Bonkersmate Bop Bop a Do Wop providing the bop, bam, boom at $16-even. Bop Bop a Do Wop was 8-1 on the morning line in a contentious race. The place-horse was OK on the LifeLiner as the 2-1 public-choice, and the exacta of 7-1 over 2-1 fave in a nine-horse lineup was $60.40.

Now, back to the original question: First-time starter in a route-race on the main-track? Yea or nae? Race 2 at the Remington in the OKC was the object lesson last night. The experienceds were so modestly talented that the V6 Betting Line shunted them to no higher than third-choice there. The top two choices were firsters! Cazart! How does this happen?

Both those preferred firsters were 8-1 on the morning line, and the connection-lines were was follows: 14pc/17pc/14pc vs. 17pc/6pc/0pc (from no starts). On this basis, which one would you have opted for? The former, right? The former ahead of the latter!

And this was reflected on the toteboard of doom: the latter was a holy-high 39-1 while the former was a lower (but still rather high) 26-1 there.

The former, a horsey named Denali Rahy Ruler, was your lone Bonkersmate call in this Race 2 at the Remington in the OKC. Denali Rahy Ruler went toward the front and stayed there to the end. The result was a hard-fought win by 1 length at a $55.40 mutuel.

The runner-up was OK on LifeLiner, 5-1 on the toteboard, and the gettable exacta paid $255.60.

WMF Report:

Early
Finger 1m
PennNat 6f
Remington 5½f
Santa Anita 6f

Nocturnal Submission: Night off…

Thank you. Best wishes. Goodbye. Tootles.