Hey, No Fair!

Um, no Fair Odds, that is.

Hey, it’s Breeders’ Cup week here, and this is a recurring All-In-One V6 Betting Line situation that you’re bound to see when the fields are full and the races gaping wide-open.

So, think of your annual Kentucky Derby event, what with its 20 runners and, generally, no true standout. Or any 11- to 14-horse lineup with a couple of hoof-fuls of closely matched runners. Indeed, this may come to signify some of the offerings at your Breeders’ Cup 2010!

Since V6 divvies up the probabilities to all the contenders (unless you mark some entrants as “noncontenders”), those percentages are quite likely to get stretched waaaay thin when there’s a large field destined for the starting gate. And if no horse gets at least 12.5 percentage points as its win probability, then all the horses are going to come up blank, blank, blank in the Fair Odds column. Cazart!

If you have your V6 old-race archives handy, check out the ninth race at Remington going back to Aug. 26, 2010. A dozen $4,000 open-claimers went to the post, and that was enough to send the software into Hemorrhage City, perhaps.

The top of that V6 Wagering Line was #10 Returnin to Cinder, and he came up with Fair Odds of nil, bupkis, the big squadoosh.

In this case, the V6 was right, even if the Fair Odds were unorthodox. Returnin to Cinder won at 16-1. (For posterity, it is duly noted that the runner-up in the race, #11 Vanefuhr, was also V6’s second-choice, and the perfecta returned $238 for $2.)

A more recent example is probably still lurking in your V6 Race Library from this past weekend. Kindly summon onto your flat-screen computer monitor the fifth race from the Woodbine Racino from Sunday, Oct. 31, 2010, A.D. That one was a stakes event squeezing 12 before the starter.

This time, the winner emerged as the fourth selection from the top in the vaunted V6 Wagering Line. The horse was #13 Safety Zone, and he paid an unsafe 22-1 to win. (Also for posterity, the writers duly note that the runner-up in the race, #5 Woodbourne, was the third-choice on the V6 Wagering Line; the exactor paid $308 for $2. Even after adjusting for the exchange rate, that’s gotta be an impressive number of U.S. dollars!)

So, perhaps it would be wise to treat these self-styled no-fair (as in No Fair Odds) Betting Line situations thusly: your choice of number of contenders equal to the Fair Odds on each of those same contenders.

So if you think the no-fair-odds Betting Line race has the top five horses being the right number of win contenders, make each member of that quintet 5-1. Likewise, if you think the contention runs six-deep from the top down, give that strongest half-dozen fair odds of 6-1 apiece.

And watch the big digits roll in, we hope. (Mitchell Matrix, it’s your time to shine!)

P.S. ‘gratz to the Gintz on their first World Serious title as the National League Baseball Club from San Francisco. Now, Tim Lincecum, 50 percent Filipino, will have an even better week if Prop. 19 passes tomorrow! LET BIG TIME TIMMIE JIM SMOKE!