First Post: Friday, November 1, 2013

Yes, repeated from last Nov. 1, but too gorgeous not to see and hear again. Luck is love is on. …Nothing lasts for long, except the earth and the mountains. …Such a subtle read, exquisite pedigree, just let yourself be. …

Now, on to this exciting news blast from the Harvard Bidness Revue:

http://blogs.hbr.org/2013/11/was-gangnam-style-a-fluke/

Takeaway snippets: It’s really about accepting your limitations, and not trying to learn too much from any outcome that has a large random component. and If you all sit in a room together initially, though, you’re going to lose information because of the effects of social influence.

Slapdash conclusions: All those guysz on NFL Network, Fix Newsz, MSNBCCCP, TVHRTV…too many lessons after the fact! Not every lost game or lost election or lost race is a lesson; indeed, very few of them are. Really, you are trying to divine an ex post facto explanation from an outcome that is decided by a distance of a couple of feet or inches? Nope.

Then on the second thing: social influence. The echo chamber. Have you seen the commentary on brightbarf.com or huffpo.com? Same things parroted over and over and over. It’s like the books of certain handicapping authorities: enough people keep repeating the same stuff, people will believe it.

Step out of the forums: they’re deleterious to your mental well-being and proper judgment. Keep your own counsel, counsellor.

(Come over here. No one listens to us, anyway! Hehehehehehhe!)

Truly, though, you get the idea about groupthink. Same 12 or 14 mopes time and again dictating how hundreds of others must feel or act. Break free! You deserve better.

Free ones: Rundown…

Aqueduct (!) 2, 4, 6
Calder 2, 5, 7
Retama 1, 7, 8, 9

(Santa Anita reserved today and tomorrow for longtime loyalists. Thank you!)

Pay-side: Today…

Churchill 3, 4, 5, 7, 9
Golden Gate 3, 8
Laurel 5, 7
Remington 5, 6, 7, 8, 9

Today’s Stakes Pageantry: Hello, Arcadia!

Elsewhere, co-fourth-choice on the morning line #6 Blueeyesintherein gets the call in CD 8, the Dream Supreme.

Any number of chances in DeD 9, the Magnolia. #3 Pretty Not is among them.

Yesterday’s Activity: One good one at the Laurel, in the opener.

A maiden race, its runners utterly devoid of demonstrated ability. No LifeLiner Speed Column scores better than 65. Atrocioius.

The Betting Line was similarly stymied, making neither head nor tail of a deplorable situation.

Only deplorable if you are trying to pick THE (sorry for the overkill emphasis; this is accepted practice by some online commentators!). But when you are looking for some sort of value-oriented situation, let the prices on the toteboard be your guide. Yea, verily, all the romance of horseracing gets drained out of it when you do it like this, but sometimes it’s called for. Nae, all the time, this is called for.

Yes, this race was hard to figure from a deterministic standpoint. You could understand the crowd making two horseys co-favourite. But 9-5 co-favourites? Cazart!

The second-longest shot on the board won it at $19.60 up top. The public third-choice at 6-1 was runner-up. The fourth-choice ran third at 7½-1. Those co-favourites were fifth and sixth in the seven-horsey field.

But could all the braniac pundits have seen this coming before the race was decided? Or did they arriave at their genius insights as soon as the last horsey crossed the wire? Those are the questions!

Touted here on the pay-side: Fourth Bonkersmate Addquart as your $19.60 winner, Third Bonkersmate Shouldabeencharlie runner-up for your $171-even exacta, top-touted Honourable finishing third for your $530.80 trizacta.

Good night, Harold Sartinez, PhD., wherever you may be. Maybe John Rancont was right, after all.

WMF Report:

Early
Los Alamitos 4½f
PennNat 6f
Keystone 6f
Remington 5½f
Santa Anita 1m (WMF 185)

Rally
Hawthorne 1 1/16m
Santa Anita (!) @6½f (T)
Woodbine 7f

Nocturnal Submission: Sifting through the wreckage…

Thank you. Best wishes. Goodbye. Drive safely.