![\"Nature’s](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/whatscookingamerica.net\/Foto3\/AvocadoPhoto.jpg?resize=288%2C285\" "\\"Nature’s")
Nature’s Butter<\/p><\/div>\n
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All right, all right, ya Speedy Gonzales fansz. Take it easy on the guacamole, or as they say here in La-La Land, the wok-a-mo-LAY. Some people prepare it with garlic, others leave it out. Either way is good, as long as the Jose Cuervo and 1812 Tradicional are flowing freely. At some point, it just won’t matter. “Smiles, everyone, smiles! Tattoo, kindly bring the guests their Cadillac margaritas with the Grand Marnier floater…” We drink a toast to you, Ricardo Montalban. You were a versatile actor. On screen, you portrayed Spaniards, Mexicans, Japanese, Filipinos, genetically engineered Indians in outer space…<\/p>\n
Once again, no public Derby pronouncements. For us, we go to the Cathedral of Racing every morning, not just on the High Holy Days or Holy Days of Compulsory Worship or whatever they’re called nowadays. <\/p>\n
No analysis for you! Instead, here is a reprint of the “PreRamble” and “Setup” sections accompanying our standard Triple Crown analysis. Enjoy!<\/p>\n
PreRamble<\/strong><\/p>\n Hello and welcome. Thank you for your longtime support. Attached is the All-In-One V6 output for the Churchill Downs card for Friday, May 4, 2012, Kentucky Oaks Day. <\/p>\n Kindly note the output is segmented into Betting Line, Speed\/Pace Summary, Factor Summary, Post Position Profile, Pace Graph (a graphical representation of the projected times in the Speed\/Pace Summary), Trainer\/Jockey report and the exciting new LifeLiner Speed Column Analysis.<\/p>\n The output and commentary that follow are best used in a Zenlike, Eastern-philosophy-style mindset. Type A, hypervigilant, micromanaging control-freaks are not likely to be satisfied. This is because we do not admit to having “the answer”. Nor do we pretend to be able to know precisely how a race will turn out. We will not be among the 99 percent who will say “told ya so!” if the forecast comes out right; and we will not be among the same 99 percent who will scramble for “a lesson” if the forecast comes out wrong, as it frequently must.<\/p>\n Granted, this does not square with the conventional wisdom which states, “Every race is an opportunity to learn”. No, not really. For any single race is subject to being decided by a set of factors that may not easily be replicated the “next time” the race is run. In other words, handicapping a race after the fact, fooling oneself into believing that, “Yes, it had to be that way”, is counterproductive and a giant waste of mental energy. In truth, nobody really knows. Nobody. Yet they pretend to know nonetheless — even after the quote-unquote benefit of hindsight! Before the race and after, nobody really knows. Sorry, racing fans!<\/p>\n Now, we are delusional, but not in that way the aforementioned 99 percent are. There are no certainties or platitudes of assuredness emanating from this analysis. We are not talented enough to be glib like the TV commentators. Yea, verily, horseracing on television has more than its share of Rush Limbaughs, Keith Olbermanns, Glenn Becks, Jim Cramers (the Mad Money<\/em> guy, not the dedicated HDW proprietor). They entertain, but please do not fall for their self-proclaimed infallibility. In reality, they are no more reliable or prescient than the guy with the porkpie hat and missing teeth sitting next to you at the races. Mainly they are there on the airwaves because they are pleasant-looking and can string multiple words together without stuttering. That, and they can construct meaningful-sounding pick 4 stabbers.<\/p>\n As well, many print journalists are meant to be alarmists instead of rationalists. Everyone will know ahead of time, and nine out of 10 of them will write their column next week sheepishly acknowledging the error of their forecasts. Mea culpa<\/em>, mea maxima culpa<\/em>. You will come across so many different prerace scenarios that bristle with optimism; hardly any will turn out that way. It would be akin to describing how the lotto balls might be drawn out of the hopper. No kidding! And we all know that before the six lotto numbers are selected, everyone is a winner.<\/p>\n For more on the vagaries of the fraught “science” of horserace handicapping analysis, we refer you to any of the books by Dr. Mark Cramer; and, in a more general sense, the excellent Fooled by Randomness<\/em> by Mr. Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Yea, verily, read Cramer and Taleb side-by-side and you will at times think to yourself that Cramer is really Taleb, and that Taleb is really Cramer. Have they ever been spotted at different locations at the same time? Good stuff.<\/p>\n Setup<\/strong><\/p>\n Now that you have little if any confidence in what we’re about to present, here is redemption: We do not pick the winner. We do not pick wagers. Rather, we pick races. If you have any prior knowledge of our horse-selection schemes, you know that we offer very little in the way of conventional-style analysis. “Horse A will get the lead out of the gate and romp all the way to the wire”, “Horse B closes best in this field full of speed-burners,” “Horse C is just in off the claim for a much better trainer, improvement forecast”. And so on, and so on, ad infinitum, world without end, amen. <\/p>\n Again, we leave those obvious and almost-always incorrect predictions to the 99 percent. Indeed, what else would they do if they could not hear the melodic strains of their own voices? Of their forceful hand-gestures as they unmistakably hammer home their points? Of their unassailable written logic as it flows down the printed page?<\/p>\n Our methods are different. Pretty much, we simply list the track, race and eligible longshots. This spartan approach does not make for good viewing or reading. It would fill up 30 seconds of a full-hour broadcast, half a column inch of editorial space. The ratings would plummet. Circulation would dip to dangerously low levels. We shall not pretend to know everything there is to know. We are not experts in speaking the hackneyed and cliched language classical handicapping, though we have read all the books (the good ones several times over!) and, if held at gunpoint, could chatter on about it in return for the privilege of living.<\/p>\n So, sports fans, what are we doing? <\/p>\n We have what we feel are quite powerful tools. All-In-One V6 is based on proprietary algorithms and contains numerous points of information that even the smartest TV commentator would be hard-pressed to replicate. We trust the numbers implicitly. <\/p>\n But while the rest of the crowd, the 99 percent, is compelled to construct some make-believe narrative to justify their actions, is compelled to detail each salient point of their genius logic as though arguing a case before the Supreme Court, we merely shrug our shoulders and say, “OK. Thanks for that” and keep our own counsel.<\/p>\n Our narratives are much simpler. We know what works for us, for the tools we have at our disposal. In short, we know how to read the All-In-One output so that we can make decisions that, long-haul, will pay off for us. Speed, pace, form-and-condition, trainers, jockeys, pedigree, all of it has its place, and all of it indeed contributes to the effectiveness of All-In-One V6. <\/p>\n Our approach boils down to this: Is the race contentious or not? If so, which horses can win, based on a comprehensive scan of their lifetime demonstrated ability? If the race is not contentious, does the Betting Line’s top selection have dual confirmation from the LifeLiner Speed Column analysis? We prefer contentious races because their outcomes are wilder; we don’t have to be right all that often to turn a profit. Noncontentious races are generally won by the consensus choice; the public gets its due.<\/p>\n An example of a contentious-type race is the bottom-level claimer in which half-a-dozen horses or more have shown the requisite ability to win today’s race: the Betting Line determines the race’s contentiousness, the LifeLiner Speed Column analysis determines which horses are our win-contenders. Again, nothing is iron-clad; we know we can be wrong! We admit it! It’s a fraught proposition, this time around! However, if we do what we are doing over the full range of events, we will turn out OK. We just won’t waste our precious breath justifying all the handicapping reasons why we were right or wrong. This is what sets us apart. There’s better things to do than make a show of it to the world at large, right or wrong. <\/p>\n Rather, we will cash the ticket or tear it up, then move on to the next opportunity. It’s a sanity-saver. It’s like you are playing baseball or tennis; you get a hit or hit a winner, or you strike out or hit it into the net, but you don’t bask in the glory or berate yourself for failing. You play for the next at-bat, the next shot. You keep your head down and go about your business professionally.<\/p>\n Now if the race is not contentious, and the LifeLiner confirms the goodness of the top selection on the Betting Line, you are likely in strong-favourite territory, the Zenyatta Mondattas and Black Caviars of the racing world, the ones who will be unbeaten and unbettable against suspect competition. No need to swing for the fences here. To mix up the metaphors once more, it’s like trying to drown a shark. Can’t be done. The longterm prospects of coming out ahead by playing against the legitimate favorite are not promising. Keep a low profile. It’s like you are a pitcher in baseball and the batter hits a homer. Tip your cap and give him his due. Or you’re a tennis player and the mope across the net hits a winner: too good. Don’t overstretch yourself when the circumstances aren’t conforming to your best game. Concede the point. Then focus on the next ball — it’s coming now!<\/p>\n Of course, you may scoff at all this foreplay. If so, enjoy rooting through all the output and picking out the parts that speak truest to you. What follows from us is one way (of many) with which to make sound decisions using All-In-One V6.<\/p>\n All right, all right, ya horseracing lovers. Let’s see here…<\/p>\n