{"id":20948,"date":"2022-05-03T16:45:52","date_gmt":"2022-05-03T23:45:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cynthiapublishing.com\/hp_wordpress\/?p=20948"},"modified":"2022-05-03T16:45:52","modified_gmt":"2022-05-03T23:45:52","slug":"first-post-tuesday-may-3-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cynthiapublishing.com\/hp_wordpress\/2022\/05\/03\/first-post-tuesday-may-3-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"First Post: Tuesday, May 3, 2022"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/B4zu78qSbUw\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Post positions and fields now known for the Derby &amp; Oaks. No matter. We\u2019ll be looking at each race not until maybe a few hours \u2014 never a few days! \u2014&nbsp;before their respective post times. That, friends, is the beauty of an established Betting Line approach, like the one afforded us by the BestLine \u2014 no mental gymnastics, no pretzel logic, no juggling of factors and how to rank them. That stuff is hard on the brain! And how do you know if you are getting the balance correct? You don\u2019t! Even if you hit the race, the ad hoc system you devised might not be good for the long haul! More on this thinking on the jump page, but before then, please enjoy some gosh-darn tooting by the one and only, the immortal Al Hirt, backed-up by Arthur Fiedler &amp; The Boston Pops Orchestra.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>Technique and consistency; consistency of technique! All three are demanded of any activity in which precision generates success. A tennis forehand, a golf swing, a delivery to home plate, taking the turns at the Old Brickyard in an Indy Car, fingering the three pistons on the trumpet while propelling air through the mouthpiece. You get the idea. Most handicappers are scrambling by the seat of their pants, figuring out the factors and how to weight them and then tinkering with all those moving parts from race-to-race; no good, Chollie. No good.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>A better idea is to settle on one approach, run it for the long haul and, instead of expecting perfection on every single event and outcome, accepting a high rate (but not too high!) of being incorrect (in terms of results) while still allowing for a profitable ending. The techniques themselves are precise, repeatable and exact; the endings are the things that sort themselves out.<\/p>\n<p>This means probabilities and prices, not factors and finagling. It\u2019s not about blowing your own horn and stroking your fragile ego by picking lots of winners at junk prices. Rather, it\u2019s a matter of letting the winners come to you, which they always will, by placing bets that confer upon you a calculable statistical advantage. So you can pick lots of winners? OK. Are they making you money? If you are scrambling and varying your approach with every new race, probably not. If you are just betting your horses without regards to price, most certainly not. The track take and breakage are tough nuts to crack!<\/p>\n<p>Not sure we were able to convey this message effectively or clearly, but trying to learn from your mistakes is like trying to explain why the pingpong balls came out a certain way; too much randomness! Pick one approach, stick to it, set the probabilities, wait till the public gives you some prices in your favor and you\u2019re golden \u2014 you\u2019ll never have to worry about factors or weightings or being right in every race ever again.<\/p>\n<p>So far today:&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Belterra 1<br \/>\n#3 Junior Bug (.282 Win Prob \/ 2.55-1 Fair Odds \/ 3.96-1 Premium Odds), $12-even<\/p>\n<p>Churchill 7<br \/>\n#6 Curbstone (.154 \/ 5.49 \/ 6.79), $24.20; exacta with runner-up coupled-entry #1 Consulate \/ #1A Jeeper (.216 \/ 3.62 \/ 4.55) paid $95.80, for $2; exacta premium price: $75.36, for $2<\/p>\n<p>Indy 7<br \/>\n#9 Lexi Sun (.231 \/ 3.33 \/ 4.19), $11.40<\/p>\n<p>ParXXX 1<br \/>\n#4 Frieder Fanatic (.365 \/ 1.74 \/ 2.29), $9.80<\/p>\n<p>Thistle 5<br \/>\n#4 Doctor Lee (.227 \/ 3.41 \/ 5.17), $12.80<\/p>\n<p>Still in play over at <strong>The Mountain <\/strong>are these strongshots, purportedly:&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Race 6<\/strong>: #4 Dahtestes Hero (.345 \/ 1.90 \/ 2.48)<br \/>\n<strong>Race 7<\/strong>: #1 Roskilde (.391 \/ 1.56 \/ 2.07)<\/p>\n<p>Contentious ones on <a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/cpcbestline\">Twitter<\/a>.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Post positions and fields now known for the Derby &amp; Oaks. No matter. We\u2019ll be looking at each race not until maybe a few hours \u2014 never a few days! \u2014&nbsp;before their respective post times. That, friends, is the beauty &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/cynthiapublishing.com\/hp_wordpress\/2022\/05\/03\/first-post-tuesday-may-3-2022\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-20948","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/pavW5M-5rS","jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cynthiapublishing.com\/hp_wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20948","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cynthiapublishing.com\/hp_wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cynthiapublishing.com\/hp_wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cynthiapublishing.com\/hp_wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cynthiapublishing.com\/hp_wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20948"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/cynthiapublishing.com\/hp_wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20948\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":20950,"href":"https:\/\/cynthiapublishing.com\/hp_wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20948\/revisions\/20950"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cynthiapublishing.com\/hp_wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20948"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cynthiapublishing.com\/hp_wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20948"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cynthiapublishing.com\/hp_wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20948"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}