Hey! What\u2019s up? <\/p>\n
So you may have figured it out \u2014 if you have paid attention, that is; all two or three of yourselves! \u2014 that the Zongo Race Club is no longer.<\/p>\n
It was a good run. Two years of looking for the false or vulnerable faves, then shooting for the moon when we thought we had found some chalk that could be defeated without too much bother. <\/p>\n
There will be rationalizations for continuing along the Zongo Race Club path, but in the interest of variety, improvement and self-awareness, we have decided to switch tactics a bit to be more inclusive of the public\u2019s better-meant contenders. This will be a freewheeling, stream-of-consciousness screed going forward. Stay with us.<\/p>\n
As you may have known, the Zongo Race Club was dependent on the morning-line favorite, finding some morning-line favorite who did not score well on the combination of the All-In-One V6 Betting Line and the LifeLiner pace-and-speed arrays. Of course, there were problems there, especially when the morning line was unreliable, or the public jumped on some lesser-fancied runner and made it favorite. Two potential strikes right out of the gate: eliminating the wrong favorite, eliminating a potential playable longshots, depending on the skill (or lack thereof) of the track oddsmaker, or else the whims of a fickle betting public. <\/p>\n
Then there were our own cherished biases and long-held assumptions, some of which we have found no longer service. It\u2019s like when you\u2019re in certain communal rooms and you find yourself uttering the fateful words of \u2018we were powerless over NyQuil\u2019 or \u2018Kept Men Anonymous is a fellowship\u2019 without completely understanding how those words really affect yourself or even what they mean. <\/p>\n
For ourselves, this meant taking a hard look at old-timey dictates seemingly handed down from Mount Sinai, things like \u2018the system breaks down at higher than Fair Odds of 7-1; disregard contenders with those probabilities\u2019 or \u2018consider as your group of contenders those runners making-up the top 67 percent of the probabilities\u2019. As well, there were \u2018eternal\u2019 verities such as \u2018don\u2019t bet against a prohibitively strong top pick\u2019 and \u2018shoot for the moon or swing for the fences when the race is contentious\u2019. You get the idea. <\/p>\n
Then there were our own pet concepts and darlings, which we have gone on and killed to death. Killed them to death! To wit, choose between each horse\u2019s higher ranking between the LifeLine Speed Column and the LifeLine Spread Column. Hoo-boy. <\/p>\n
After careful consideration and hoping to validate all these ancient \u2018truths\u2019, we were able to take the cold and critical eye and abandon most of them. It\u2019s not that they did not work; it was more a matter of how our old buddy the famous tennis instructor Rick Macci likes to say, \u2018There\u2019s not a wrong way, there\u2019s not a right way; there\u2019s a better way.\u2019 And Mr. Macci was not incorrect!<\/p>\n
We looked at everything from scratch. We wanted to incorporate a little of the public\u2019s wisdom into the process; they are largely efficient, race-in, race-out. We wanted to offer more advisories in those instances in which the old Zongo Race Club was too restrictive. We wanted to use our expertise in track-modeling and trends in such a way to counter the public\u2019s overreliance on final-time figures or entire-race ability. We also wanted to know when the system, our outlook, broke down (spoiler: it was way lower than 7-1) and when the nominal overlays of the past maintained a good chance of winning, living up to their calculated edge, instead of appearing as mere mirages and outliers. A little more signal, a little less noise, a little less Rob Deer & Dave Kingman, a little more Tim Raines & Chase Utley; power and contact, if you know anything about baseball.<\/p>\n
In short, we wanted to appreciate the reliability of the lower-priced overlay without entirely jettisoning the potential of the boxcar-paying upset. We needed more versatility.<\/p>\n
To this end, we had to take a look at something that the public was adept at and obvious to see \u2014 gasp! class-consistency?! \u2014 and couple that with an evaluation of what our track-modeling and trending suggested was the most important individual race segment, such as to gain some wager-value and separation from the public\u2019s need to always look at the final-time figure or else a whole-race evaluation. <\/p>\n
Next we had to limit our focus on something much lower than the old 7-1-or-shorter guidelines. Too many contenders! As well, we got rid of the old 67-percent-probability cluster of playable contention. Too many contenders.<\/p>\n
In short, we wanted horses who had fine chances to win \u2014 a nod to conventional, winner-picking handicapping! \u2014 and then to determine the public odds at which those strong-probability contenders could be backed in order to secure a long-term profit. For all these changes in methodology and specifics, the general idea of positive-expectation wagering never once left our consciousness. We still required the overlay.<\/p>\n
But now the overlay has taken a different appearance. Thanks to variable edge, we no longer have to demand the same fixed-percentage minimum expectation on our potential wagers. We have the flexibility to demand less of an edge when our probabilities are stronger; many times these turn out to be those once-ignored lower-priced overlays that Zongo and our previous advisories failed to uncover with sufficient regularity. <\/p>\n
Yet we know that the strongest faves and top picks frequently fail to win. In these instances, we can turn to strong-enough lower contenders who are paying a bigger edge; since we are taking more of a risk \u2014 in the form of lower probabilities of winning \u2014 we will require more of a premium before taking the plunge. <\/p>\n
In all, we have refined the ideas of precepts of the Zongo Race Club, which itself was wild & chaotic, to bring you a more civilized, a slightly more ordered BestLine Racing Society, which itself is growing older gracefully, with a touch more wisdom and restraint.<\/p>\n
Of course, this won\u2019t exist in a vacuum. We are eager to be of service to yourselves and your Thoroughbred horserace handicapping and wagering, as always. We do not expect complete robotic loyalty or slavish dependence; yet we do believe we can help yourself and your parimutuel pursuits to a greater level of performance. If we can help yourself, we should be privileged and honored to do so.<\/p>\n
Thanks for the opportunity. We always enjoy what we do. Inquiries to: info {AT} cynthiapuublishing {dot} com, or to cpcfan {AT} icloud {dot} com. Or via Twitter DM to @cpcbestline. Or direct text to THREE-TWO-THREE-SIX-ONE-ZERO-FIVE-TWO-SEVEN-SIX. <\/p>\n
Later!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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