First Post: Wednesday, October 28, 2020

Six calls might not be enough! Finally, after all those nearly-was seasons, we, as longtime Los Angelenos transplanted from the Other Coast, are happy to announce that your La-La Land Los Doyers are — yea, verily — your World Series Champeens…CHAMPEENS!

As antisocial and nerdy adolescents, we used to play various tabletop baseball games for hours on end, long before Bill James was a thing and sabermetrics and analytics had taken over the actual sport. These games were all simulations, based on long-term or seasonal statistics, of course, and you rolled dice or drew cards (or both!) whose outcomes would somehow translate to the probabilities of an event (strikeout, single, homer, etc.) taking place. Good times.

One of those games had a fudge factor built in, though — a fudge factor in a statistics-based game! This fudge factor had to do with the starting pitcher. Before the first inning even started, you drew a card and if the card was within a narrow low-end range, the starting pitcher that day was deemed to have ‘exceptional stuff’, or something to that effect, and that pitcher’s effectiveness was pretty much to render the opposing batters virtually helpless. (Oppositely, the fudge factor also applied at the high end of the range, and the starting pitcher’s effectiveness was negated to the point that he was lobbing batting practice out there and certain to be yanked in the first inning or two.)

We remember this tabletop baseball game and its starting-pitcher fudge factor, because in real life, last night, Game 6 of your 2020 World Series, it seemed that Tampa starting pitcher Blake Snell had drawn that low-end card, rendering the batters virtually helpless. Now, if Kevin Cash had known, before the game, that that fudge factor had been in effect, maybe he throws the analytics out the window, because the analytics no longer applied with the fudge factor superseding the analytics!

Maybe Kevin Cash never played tabletop baseball! Maybe Kevin Cash never played the races on a day when all the frontrunners were winning and the superior closers were going nowhere. No, fudge factors and analytics don’t mix, but sometimes the fudge factor wins out and takes over!

At any rate, good job, Tampa. Analytics got you to within two wins of a low-payroll World Championship.

As for your La-La Land Los Doyers, thank you for finally making good on your giant payroll and giant payload of talent. Cannot wait to get back to the Stadium at Chavez Ravine and collect those commemorative bobbleheads in 2021!


There were three selected races yesterday. There were nine win-overlay wagers, and they as ineffective as the Tampa Rays batters after the first inning of last night’s game.

WMF Report / Track-Trend Notes

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The Zongo Race Club suggests Indiana 8, Zia 5, 6. Spring Training 2021 coming in about four months from now. Hang on!

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