April 12, 2002

In This Issue...

2002 PARS PLUS Materials Are Coming

It's now time to update your Cynthia Publishing par times, and for a limited time, you can save some money and get some terrific bonuses, too. These profuse rewards are our way of thanking you for your patience and support.

Translation: Your copy of the 2002 PARS PLUS Special 10th Anniversary Edition will be available for shipment soon, and that's only some of the good news. This year's pars are cause for celebration. You'll draw on our solid decade of experience in providing the ultimate in par-time information. But that's not all. You'll also leap ahead of the rest by taking your knowledge and application of pars to a spectacular new level no one else can show you. And you'll get all of this at a remarkable discount and with some very special gifts.

Back to the pars. You'll get them in our traditional, time-honored, three-call format for all the racetracks, both dirt and turf, in North America. So if you're accustomed to using the par times as the basis for your handicapping, you're set. You know the value of updating your pars annually.

But if you're hungry for extra handicapping tools, 2002 PARS PLUS has plenty to satisfy your needs. We're excited to be able to provide average daily variants; improved, more-realistic track-class levels; and more-practical intertrack class-level ratings than before. They'll help simplify your handicapping experience. These three tools alone are dynamite in getting quick reads on track-surface speeds and shippers, without needing to go through the entire exercise of comparing pars from one track to the next. In this age of full-card multi-track simulcasting, quick-handicapping is the key, and having handicapping information such as average daily variants, track-class levels and intertrack class-level ratings will slash hours from your handicapping load.

There's more. We're also pleased to be able to provide you with a brand-new way of evaluating how tracks behave for each combination of track, distance and surface. We call it WMF (Winning Move Factor), but you'll call it money. You'll use WMF to confidently eliminate noncontenders and understand how changes as subtle as switching distance or moving from one track to another can boost a horse that looks dull, or help knock off a low-odds horse that looks sharp.

Better yet, WMF is a real eye-opener that translates easily take from track to track. Ever wonder why your pet early-speed plays do better at some tracks than others? With the handy WMF, you won't be left wondering anymore. You'll know. Better yet, you'll be able to temper your enthusiasm for these plays when they take place at tracks whose WMF is disadvantageous to frontrunners. And bet with confidence over surfaces where the WMF is in your favor.

And don't worry - if you're allergic to numbers, there'll be meaningful, practical articles to help explain the numbers to you and how you can use them to help your handicapping.

By themselves, these outstanding information resources and articles would be enough. But why stop there? Perhaps the most exciting aspect of your 2002 PARS PLUS materials are the bold advances we've made in taking the practice and theory of par times to the next level. We have combined many more hours of research plus a savvy for all-important local knowledge to change the way you approach and think about the game. On each coast and everywhere in-between, you'll begin to understand the game like never before, thanks to logical, sensible and thought-provoking inquiries that should have been made long ago but, amazingly enough, appear for the first time only in 2002 PARS PLUS. We're committed to seeing your handicapping is as well-informed as possible.

These developments in 2002 PARS PLUS Special 10th Anniversary Edition truly are cause for a lot of celebration, but the icing on the cake is the price: 2002 PARS PLUS is unchanged at $107 (including shipping and handling; $115.25 for California residents to cover applicable state sales tax). That's right! You get three-call par times for all the tracks in North America, PLUS terrific handicapping tools like average daily variants, track-class levels, intertrack class-level ratings, PLUS the WMFs for every track PLUS eye-opening articles tying it all together PLUS great local-knowledge pointers for a hundred bucks, plus shipping and handling. What an overlay!

It gets even better. In our quest to continually delight you, we'll make the deal even sweeter. We're obviously excited about the 2002 PARS PLUS Special 10th Anniversary Edition and everything inside. But if you place your order for the 2002 PARS PLUS Special 10th Anniversary Edition book now, we'll deliver two extra-special bonuses before May 1 - at no additional charge. They're called "The Quick and Dirty Guide to Trainer Subtleties," one for Southern California trainers and another for their New York Racing Association counterparts. Don't let the crazy title fool you - these excellent guides give you more than just the usual, tired-old stats. You'll get vivid word-pictures and descriptions that actually put you inside the trainers' heads to uncover their winning m.o.'s. In other words, you'll know when a trainer is ready to strike - or not, as the case may be. Valued at $25 apiece, that's a $50 bonus, yours free with your prompt order of the 2002 PARS PLUS Special 10th Anniversary Edition.

So let's recap. It's time to update your par times, not to mention get such improved supplemental tools as average daily variants, track-class levels, intertrack class-level ratings and WMFs for all North American tracks. It's also time to tie it all together with fascinating, provocative and thought-provoking articles on the very latest par-time handicapping techniques based on local knowledge of the various tracks. And if you order now, you receive all these outstanding handicapping resources for $107 ($115.25 for California residents) - PLUS you get two more extra-special bonuses ("The Quick and Dirty Guide to Trainer Subtleties" for Southern California and New York) FREE! How can you lose?

If you're an ALL-IN-ONE, Easy Capper or Fast Capper user and want to upgrade to the 2002 par times, no problem. Order by April 15 and for $107 ($115.25 for California residents) you get the 2002 par-times update for your software, the printed supplemental material from the 2002 PARS PLUS Special 10th Anniversary Edition book AND your two "The Quick and Dirty Guide to Trainer Subtleties" bonuses at no extra charge.

To order by phone with a major credit card, call (323) 876-7325. Or fax your order information to (323) 874-1591. Or visit our brand-new Web site at www.cynthiapublishing.com and click on any link alongside announcing the 2002 PARS PLUS Special 10th Anniversary Edition. Or if you like to do business the old-fashioned way, please mail your payment to Cynthia Publishing Company, 11314 Ventura Blvd. #524, Studio City, CA 91604. P.S. Remember, this very special offer is good only for orders placed by April 15, so don't delay. We appreciate your business. (And if you need more information, please enjoy the additional information at the Cynthia Publishing Company Handicapping Store.)

New Stuff In Store: Freshman Sires of 2002

Who'll be the hot new studs dominating juvenile racing this year? Get the jump on your fellow handicappers with Mike Helm's new publication Freshman Sires of 2002.

Helm previews numerous sires whose first crop to race will be coming in 2002. He reviews each sire's racing career with an eye toward predicting in which situations their progeny should succeed. Best of all, since these sires have yet to compile any statistics, they go ignored by 99.9 percent of the betting public, which means you'll be able to cash in on some juicy prices.

A terrific complement to Freshman Sires of 2002 is Helm's Debut Trainer Guide 2002. It goes beyond the unthinking monotony of the fat numbers-crunchers by providing specific situations behind a trainer's debut wins. It adds texture to the numbing stats provided by everyone else. For a better understanding of the hows and whys behind debut-trainer patterns, definitely check out Helm's work. It combines the cold, hard facts with the warm touch only the soul of a poet could provide. For more on Debut Trainers and Freshman Sires, please click on this link to the Cynthia Publishing Company Handicapping Store.

Of course, don't forget about the newest offering from the illustrious Mark Cramer: the authoritatively titled Hidden Probabilities: Hard-Core Research for X-Rated Horseplayers.

In inimitable Cramer style and packed with unique research, Galileo-inspired thinking and writing (with high-level concepts made easy to grasp, thanks to Cramer's renowned facility with the English language), this new booklet is an ambitious blend of the nearly mechanical, the almost-magical and the fully inspired. That's because our friend Cramer takes 10 time-honored and simple handicapping concepts and pulses them through the kink-o-master machine, coming up with a stunning creation of staggering beauty and elegance that's good enough to eat.

Whoa. That's just plain silly. But you get the idea. Hidden Probabilities: Hard-Core Research for X-Rated Horseplayers is going to be another valuable addition to the handicapping literature, courtesy of someone who knows how to do just that.

April Foolishness/Derby Prep Edition of the Big-Prize Handicapping Contest

Week 1 is in the books, and there have been some terrific showings already after only two days of play.

The nice things about this contest is that it combines the Kentucky Derby prep races into the calculations. It's like tournaments with "mandatory" races. There are two opportunities to score, and you'll find all the details on our contest page.

Oh, yeah. Best wishes for a good contest, and we'll be rooting for you.

Three-Year-Old Recap

A little lengthier recap this time.

Though Came Home won last Saturday's biggest -- at least nominally -- Kentucky Derby prep race, he might also have emerged as the biggest loser.

Sure, such ballyhooed three-year-olds as Fonz's, U S S Tinosa, Mayakovsky and even the great Repent were the ones who truly got beat on the track, but at least for those guys, you don't need to keep harboring any more false Triple Crown suspicions. They've run out of playing time, game over.

But in the case of Came Home you have to wonder: How much more time before his Kentucky Derby clock reaches triple-zero?

Actually, the clock already is an issue. It hasn't hit 0:00 yet, officially, but 1:50 is dangerously close.

That 1:50 represents the final time of this year's quote-unquote Santa Anita Derby, and if that wasn't bad enough, nothing in Came Home's manner of not losing -- uh, manner of victory -- suggested that there might be something hidden beneath the surface to compensate for the sluggish effort.

Point of comparison: Every year on Santa Anita Derby Day, they have a Grade II race for older males at the same nine-furlong distance as the Derby. Last year, Point Given, monster for all moments and perhaps the best three-year-old of the last decade, romped in the Santa Anita Derby in a final time a fifth of a second faster than his elders completed their race.

This year, the elders ran the nine furlongs in 1:49. Clearly, Came Home is no Point Given. Then again, not many are. Still, the five-tick separation between Came Home and the elders is not a good sign. Perhaps that limited-stamina pedigree was catching up with him in a final furlong that went in a somnambulant 13-plus seconds.

They were all napping at the end, except for Lusty Latin, a onetime maiden-claimer who has awakened of late. Let's see here now. Do you think Came Home would have been able to cross the wire ahead of, oh, say, Harlan's Holiday, Perfect Drift, Medaglia d'Oro, Sunday Break, or even Booklet or Blue Burner or [your horse here]? Nah, didn't think so. Good luck to you, Came Home. Thanks for playing. The Santa Anita Derby is a nice consolation prize.

Now, what happened to Repent? He was a victim! No, not really, but One Tuff Fox's late scratch was not something Repent needed. War Emblem knew what to do, however, and it was kind of like history repeating, the history being last year's Spiral, when Keats missed the break, creating a free-and-easy early lead for the great Balto Star. And we all know what happened to Balto Star when he got to the Derby. Well, at least the one in Kentucky; he did win the Arkansas edition. War Emblem, meet Balto Star. Too bad there's not an extra uncontested lead for you to wrangle before the Kentucky Derby.

But back to Repent. He ran as well as he could, trying to buck the anti-rally tendencies of Sportsman's while simultaneously seeing if he could run down a tearaway leader. Hard to do. Fonz's had the thankless task of trying to keep War Emblem honest and then holding Repent safe. He succeeded at neither and got hurt in the process. Tough.

Which brings us to the weekend's true star, Take Charge Lady, in what's becoming a recurring role: on the pace, vanquishing the minor characters and racing into the spotlight all by herself. She'll be your Kentucky Oaks favorite, obviously, though the dynamics of that race and the radically different (read: unfriendly-to-frontrunners) surface at Churchill Downs might make it hard for her to romp the way she's used to. Belterra has twice been compromised by speed-friendly tracks (Gulfstream, Keeneland) and before you write her off completely as a three-year-old, she might pay OK in the Oaks, given a race dynamic and main track that play to her strengths.

This Week's Three-Year-Old Forecast

This is it. Really.

Not Yalta or Detroit or the shrinking consortium of national accounting firms, the Big 3 for horseplayers takes place tomorrow, and rightly occupies the whole of this time-honored section of this e-newsletter.

We'll go in ascending order of Derby implications, which also holds sway geographically as we travel from south to north, which also means that the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn is our first stop.

If you've never heard of some ofthese horses...ah, that's the true beauty of the Arkansas Derby every year. Remember such all-time obscurities (what a paradox!) as Rockamundo and Valhol? Neither do we.

But you know that that can only make for a more contentious, more appetizing wagering race. It's not exactly a $10,000 claimer, but in the world of Derby preps, that characterization probably is not too far off the mark.

The top two morning-line choices in Arkanasas are a trio of horses -- Private Emblem (7-2) and Windward Passage and Mr. Mellon (both at 4-1). Private Emblem freaked out last time, in the mud, stomping on them late after getting a blistering pace to run down. No such luck this time, probably.

Mr. Mellon got much better last time, but did it while flanking dawdling splits. For him, the pace is a little faster this time, and now he has to move faster at the end, too. Unlikely.

Windward Passage got his black type in his most recent effort, stepping up his game, but he'll need to step it up again in here. Helping him is that he gets a solid pace to chase, and it's his third off the layoff over a track he's gotten used to -- this will be his third Oaklawn start in six weeks.

Thus, of the track oddsmaker's top three, Windward Passage seems to make the most sense.

The outsider to like -- nae, love -- is It'sallinthechase, a Fair Grounds refugee who had the misfortune of trying to run down Repent and Easyfromthegitgo all winter in New Orleans. Last time, he put in a solid third behind those two, at 52-1. And do you see any Repents or Easyfromthegitgos in here? Not really. Granted, Repent lost, but Easyfromthegitgo is now in training for the big Derby, and if not for upcoming surgery, Repent would be, too.

We'll try those two -- It'sallinthechase and Windward Passage -- on top in this race, and criss-cross them for added crispiness. Third could be a real scramble.

Moving right along to Keeneland for the Blue Grass Stakes, and if it's Keeneland, look out for the speed. And though Booklet is by most accounts your controlling frontrunner here, he could be outrun to the crucial front position at the first turn.

The spoiler has to be Bob's Image, who, like It'sallinthechase, now moves out of New Orleans and Repent's large shadow and could be ready to roll all the way to the wire. Benefiting 'Bob are an easier race dynamic and a surface more suited to his up-front style. He could be the one to catch.

Harlan's Holiday, obviously, has a big chance to run 'em all down in the lane, as does Azillion, who has fired consistently and impressively in the final furlong in each of his three North American starts.

So, to make the exotics pay, inclusion of some weirdo, such as Bob's Image, is necessary, while Harlan's Holiday and Azillion take on the lion's share of the consideration. However, as they say at the NTRA offices nearby, "Go Bobby Go!" Sorry, just couldn't resist.

Finally, your deepest group goes postward at Aqueduct in the Wood Memorial, where horses everyone has heard of (well, almost everyone, or at least those who enjoy the sporting aspects of the game, not just the vain, less-than-righteous attempt to reduce it to a number devoid of man and beast) attempts to gain the ascendancy in the climb toward Louisville.

Medaglia d'Oro has already done a lot in eight weeks, breaking his maiden at Oaklawn, moving to the barn of Bobby Frankel, winning a Grade II at Santa Anita and enjoying his position among the top five Kentucky Derby contenders. Clearly, when they were taking applications for the accelerated Derby-contender-training program, Medaglia d'Oro signed up first.

He should have every opportunity to run well again tomorrow. But he might have a little more company this time.

The price upsetter has to be Nokoma, a neck behind better-fancied Saarland when they met at this track and distance in the Remsen five months ago. A neck separated them then, and that might be their difference tomorrow. Saarland came back in a useful effort last time, posting a relatively good figure. Nokoma has to move forward, but there's plenty of upside to him. The blinks go on, and the price will be right, if you don't like settling on the paltry prices on Medaglia or Saarland or even Sunday Break.

A few others in here might also show more, but the keys for us have to be Nokoma, Saarland and Medaglia d'Oro.

Enjoy the day tomorrow. And, oh yeah, best wishes and even better luck. Whoa, we mean skill.

We appreciate your comments about this newsletter. Please send them to our staff. Thank you!

Cynthia Publishing • 11314 Ventura Boulevard, Suite 524 • Studio City CA 91604
Voice (323) 876-7325 • Fax (323) 874-1591