First Post: Saturday, September 9, 2017

Check the date. Does this mean the 9-9 multiple-win exotics will be overbet today?

Race 9 at Hastings today. It’s a stakes race, and it has as its 2-1 morning-line fave #2 Victress. Legit, vulnerable or false?

Well, the conventional All-In-One V6 Betting Line shows it to be a wide-open affair. And despite the widely dispersed win-probabilities, Victress is not among the live-issues getting Fair Odds. Indeed, there she sits six-deep, immediately below the last horse to get Fair Odds (6-1 in this case). What to do?

Nor does LifeLiner offers Victress any indication she can run to her name. As in the Betting Line, Victress is buried below no fewer than four horses on the LifeLiner Speed Column analysis; on the LifeLiner Spread Column analysis, she is absolutely bottom! Yow.

Does this mean anything? In this one race, sadly, no. ‘False’ is not the same as ‘hopeless’. However, over the long run of horse races it may mean something. Initial testing was promising, and continues such. Let’s settle on false being a combination of grossly overrated and, likely here, grossly overbet. You will have a fine, fun time trying to beat the chalk in this race — it’s not like you’re going to have to drown a shark or beat Frankel or Zenyatta in this one.

As for the last Thoroughbred contest of the evening, we won’t count Race 9 at Remington, since it’s a pay-side track. But we can look at Fairmount 8. Lo and behold, same false-favorite sitch as Hastings 9! You can’t script it any better.

Your morning-line choice is #4 The Pegasus Book, and he might truly need to sprout wings to beat this field. Both the single-race paceline methodology espoused by the Betting Line and the whole-record assessment promoted by LifeLiner give ’Pegasus anything but mythical status here. Bellerophon, look away!

If Victress and The Pegasus Book both win, of course we will be chagrined and mildly abashed. But will it change our overall outlook on these kinds of favorites? We bet you can figure the answer out for yourself.

Source material: All-In-One V6, LifeLiner Tutorial.

About Shoutoute

The unofficial spokesperson for the Boys In The Backroom…

This entry was posted in News, Picks, Stakes and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply